I was told we were in a Uranium bull market.

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Those who’ve held Uranium investments over the past few years can probably relate to the following meme.

Whilst I haven’t had any meaningful exposure for a few years, it’s still been fascinating to watch the volatility in the sector’s price action - both in terms of the commodity and the equities, not to mention the sentiment on X.

The frustration is palpable, the commentary is harsh and the price of the spot futures and the bell weather ETF, URNM, are both down 27% YOY.

Yet, given what I’ve just said, it might be surprising to learn that over the last 5 years the spot futures are actually up 140% and the URNM ETF is up 334% as shown below.

You’d never suspect this given investor sentiment. RSI is at the lows yet the IRR for holding the spot is ~19% and ~33% for simply holding the ETF basket..

There’s a lot of confusion in the space and so what better time to call upon my friend Justin Huhn from the uranium insider to talk us through the volatility and seperate fact from fiction.

Be sure to check out his newsletter for the most in-depth analysis on the sector available.

I hope you enjoy today’s podcast and get a lot out of it.

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Chapters:

00:00 - Introduction and disclaimer
01:51 - Discussion of spot price vs term price for uranium
04:11 - Long-term bull market in uranium and market volatility
06:15 - Explanation of long-term uranium pricing by UXC and TradeTech
08:27 - Recent contracting activity and market uncertainties
10:31 - Discussion of potential secret uranium supply sources
12:36 - Price action in conversion and enrichment services
14:34 - Relationship between uranium, conversion, and enrichment markets
16:29 - Analysis of uranium production in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
18:46 - Incentive prices for uranium production in different regions
21:08 - Timeline for new uranium mine development (NextGen's Arrow project)
23:07 - Current uranium demand and supply figures
25:00 - Explanation of contract flexing in the uranium market
27:03 - Discussion of uranium inventories and utility buying behavior
29:25 - How the uranium industry operates with a future-focused perspective
31:23 - Near-term vs long-term uranium demand and supply dynamics
33:46 - Investment thesis for uranium and potential price scenarios
36:07 - Possibility of supply shortages and price spikes in uranium
38:24 - Discussion of Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) and its role in the market
40:38 - Impact of AI and data centers on future uranium demand

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I document my investment journey for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and consult a professional before making investment decisions.

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